Rapidly rising home prices during the pandemic may be uncomfortably reminiscent of the years of heating up during the Great Depression.

According to an analysis of Realtor.com data, the median home listing price rose an average of $1,243 per month from 2000 to 2005.

While this may seem high, from 2020 to 2022, the median home listing price jumps by an average of $4,410 per month.

Rather than a bubble, it's a mania. Prices skyrocketed over the past two years, and then soaring mortgage rates were the turning point.

From a peak in June of this year, home prices have fallen 7.4 percent through November as mortgage rates have risen.

Home prices are usually highest in the summer and then fall in the cooler months. But this time, the drop was considerably greater than usual.

Remarkably, home prices still rose sharply year-over-year in November, 11 percent higher than last year, and are forecast to rise 5.4 percent nationally in 2023.

This round is different, economists say.

Prices are rising because there aren't enough homes for sale to meet demand, and mortgage rates have fallen to a record low of 2 percent, making it possible for buyers to pay higher prices because they don't have to pay as much interest. As a result, prices climbed.

Home prices are expected to fall by as much as 10 percent nationwide over the next two to two-and-a-half years.

If there is a recession, home prices could fall by nearly 20 percent.

While that sounds like a lot, the context is important: Home prices have risen 39 percent since January 2020.

Most economists don't expect another foreclosure crisis, which would flood the market with cheap homes and further drag down home prices.

Most mortgages after the Great Recession do not balloon over time, putting homeowners at risk of not being able to make their monthly payments. Therefore, unless homeowners lose their jobs, they should be able to hold on to their properties.

Another feature of the Great Recession was the plummeting number of home sales as the housing market imploded. A similar situation may be occurring today.

According to NAR data on existing home sales (not including new construction), sales peaked in 2005 at just over 7 million. Just three years later, sales fell to 4.11 million.

Last year's sales spiked to 6.12 million, the highest number since 2006.

NAR expects 5.22 million units this year before the number of sales drops to 4 million in 2023, as high mortgage rates continue to drive many buyers out of the market.

According to NAR, sales have fallen for nine consecutive months this year. (Data for November and December are not yet available).

However, the steep decline in sales does not mean the housing market is collapsing.

For once, the housing market is also supported by the population in a big way.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, in the mid-2000s, the number of people in their early to mid-30s, when people traditionally become homeowners, was declining.

From 2002 to 2007, the population of 30- to 34-year-olds declined by nearly 1.5 million.

Today, that population is growing due to the large number of millennials. From 2016 to 2021, the number of 30- to 34-year-olds increased by nearly 1.25 million.

This demand, combined with interest rates falling into the low 6% range, could lead to at least a small pickup in sales.

According to the National Association of Realtors, there were more than three times as many existing homes for sale in the 2000s before the real estate crash as there are today.

In October 2007, there were 3.9 million homes on the market, compared to only 1.2 million this October.

While the number of homes for sale is expected to increase, it will not be that many.

Now that we are in a severe housing shortage, potential sellers are reluctant to give up their low mortgage rates, so they stay put rather than trade up or trade down to a new home. Builders are also slowing down much-needed construction.

In addition, rising mortgage rates are not a problem in and of themselves.

In 2000, rates peaked at 8.6 percent, and in the early to mid-2000s, rates were in the 5 to 6 percent plus range.

According to Freddie Mac, that's about the same as it is now, with the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan at 6.31 percent for the week ending Dec. 15.

The difference is that before the Great Recession, home prices were much lower.

According to NAR's available home sales data, the median home price did not exceed $200,000 until 2005. Last year's median was $347,883.

When interest rates spike rapidly and buyers are turned away, it becomes worrisome.

Many fear the Federal Reserve could steer the country into a recession by raising interest rates to fight inflation.

But even if the Fed fails in its project to soft-land the economy, most real estate experts don't expect the resulting recession to be as devastating as the Great Recession.

Even if we have a recession, it will not be as deep or as long as a typical recession.